In researching for my TeachForAmerica lesson, I stumbled across this estimation of changes in representation following the 2010 census. Hard to say whether it will favor democrats or republicans in the House itself - that largely depends on where the growth is, gerrymandering, etc - but it is easy to see how it will affect the 2012 presidential contest. I've broken down the list into changes to Red, Swing, and Blue states.
Red State Changes:
TX + 4
AZ + 2
GA + 1
NC + 1
SC + 1
UT + 1
LA - 1
NET GOP GAIN: 9 votes
Swing State Changes:
FL + 2
NV + 1
IA - 1
MO - 1
OH - 2
NET SWING LOSS: 1
Blue State Changes:
OR + 1
CA - 1
IL - 1
MA - 1
MI - 1
MN - 1
NJ - 1
PA - 1
NY - 2
NET DEM LOSS: 8
Basically, red state power grows by 9 electoral votes, and blue state declines by 8 electoral votes, for a net GOP gain of 17 electoral points - about as big a difference as Ohio or Pennsylvania - just by holding states that are already red.
Of course, it's largely these same demographic changes that have made some red states like VA and NC to be competitive to the democrats this time around, and that locked in a state like OR. So it's hard to complain. On the other hand, it shows that the party really does need to continue expanding into red states like Georgia, the Carolinas, even Texas - or at least solidify support in swing states like OH and FL - if it wants to remain competitive.
And before anyone says it... Yes, I know it's four *years off... And there's an election in 2 weeks... leave me alone ;-)
