Here's my final take on the race - not with a straight-up prediction, but rather based on three models.
Model One is based on conservative estimates of voter turnout and preference. This is what I think is most likely to happen. Note that Florida stays red, a decision I made based on the hesitance of FL voters to move to Obama in the past month and a half, and the fact that McCain and the RNC have putting in a lot of resources here.
(If you can't see this map, click here.)
Model Two is based on a blue collar back down / Bradley Effect scenario in which voters in Pennsylvania and Ohio get into the voting booths and can't quite bring themselves to vote for Senator Obama. Pennsylvania has been looking safe, but the GOP is trying its damnedest for the state, and the polling numbers seem to be dropping. And Ohio, while trending better than Florida as of late, is still too close to call. If anywhere we'd see a reluctance of the "Hillary Clinton Democrats" to actually vote for Obama, it's in these two states. Note, though, that in this model, Obama still holds onto Nevada, Colorado, and Nevada - three states that I think are a lock for Obama at this point - as well as Bush '04 state Iowa, which is also sure to swing. It all comes down to Virginia, where I believe there will be less of a Bradley effect, less of a Clinton Dem problem (recall that Obama won Virginia's primary 2-to-1), and where Obama has put in much more effort and money than McCain. Therefore, even in this model, Obama still - barely - ekes out a win.
(can't see this map? click here.)
Model Three is based on massive African American and youth turnout - which some of the early voting numbers are suggesting - which would push Obama over in several southern states and also win him current toss-up (and major bellwether) Missouri. I don't realistically see other states, like Arizona, Montana, or North Dakota, switching - pending a McCain disaster in the next three days. This is kind of my vision of a best case scenario for Team Obama.
(can't see this map? click here.)
In a few days, we'll finally know for sure. Until then... we wait ;-)
