Since I last blogged about it, there has been some movement in the swing states. Below I show what I now feel are safe Obama and McCain spots - provided that nothing major in the election changes. For example, Colorado is one state that I moved from Swing to Obama as the Illinois senator has remained strong there for many weeks now and seems to be on track to win, unless something big tilts the race in McCain's favor.
You'll notice that the race has gone from 252 Obama / 200 McCain to 269 Obama / 163 McCain. This means that Obama only needs 1 electoral vote from the swing states I've labeled to win. Therefore, I am listing the swing states in the order in which I believe they are LEAST TO MOST LIKELY to go for the democratic ticket, and put Obama over the top.
(if you can't see my map, click here)
8. Missouri (close red in 2004)
MO is said to be a bellweather, but it has been pretty much in the red throughout the election. Polls show a tightening race there, but in this week that has seen Obama up in high single digits in some Florida and Ohio polls, MO remains close. It is possible, but not exceedingly likely.
7. Indiana (strong red in 2004)
No one probably expected IN to be on this list - after all, Bush carried it by almost 20 points in 2004. But things have been close here for months. Obama has 2 big advantages: he had a very high-profile primary here, in which he came very close to besting the favorite in the Hoosier state, Hillary Clinton; and, he has been up with ads since the beginning, whereas McCain has done nothing. McCain's advantage, though, is that this is still a pretty conservative state that will probably only flip for Obama if national conditions stay at LEAST as good as they are now for the dems.
6. Ohio (close red in 2004)
If the economy is as big an issue on Nov. 4th as it is today, Obama should win Ohio. If not, it is hard to see it happening. His troubles in the primary underline that Ohioans are skeptical of the freshman senator and it is simply not one of his stronger pick-up opportunities. But if things keep moving in this direction, it could happen.
5 (tie). New Hamshire (close blue in 2004)
Maybe I'm just being overly skeptical, but Obama just isn't a good match for NH. He lost the primary here to Clinton after many thought his Iowa victory would change enough minds in the Granite State; not so. And as I wrote last week, the focus on the economy means a shift from the Iraq War - a big plus for Obama here - to taxes - a big minus.
5 (tie). North Carolina (strong red in 2004)
Why is Obama doing so well in NC, a state that has been safely red for years and that is home to many military families who should be in McCain's pocket? Probably because of demographic changes and the national environment as a whole, which also has Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R) in big trouble here. With big turnout expected from African Americans and college students, this one could be surprisingly close - the numbers out of NC have been looking better and better, and many of Obama's displaced GA staffers were moved here in an effort to jack things up.
3. Florida (moderate red in 2004)
A few months ago it looked like FL was a non-starter this year. McCain led consistently in the mid- to high-single digits. Millions of dollars in ads and campaign infrastructure later, and Obama is running ahead of McCain in the polling this week. Biden helps him here with older voters, and Palin hurts the GOP ticket with Jews and doesn't help with moderates. The economy will certainly help Obama as it puts a lot of fixed-income, elderly households into play. Florida could well return to the spotlight as the swing state to watch, much as it was in 2000 (versus '04 when Bush won fairly easily.)
2. Nevada (close red in 2004)
It's hard to tell what's going on in NV as there is very little reliable polling coming out of there of late. What we do know is that it was getting closer here before things swung in Obama's direction nationally, that registration efforts have created a new Democratic majority, and that trends in the West have been moving more and more Democratic this year, as well. I'm putting it here mostly because I don't know where else to put it, but it seems like - based on the makeup of the state - Nevada should turn out more like NM and CO (which should both go for Obama) than OH or even FL (where things have been closer.)
1. Virginia (strong red in 2004)
I almost ranked Virginia as an Obama state this time around, but hesitated to do so only while numbers have been trending his way for a few weeks - even during the Palin/convention GOP bump - they have been close. His lead has expanded in most polls this week, sure, but then again if the election were this week what with the economic crisis and all Obama would probably win the electoral college by 175 points. VA is looking like a VERY good pickup for Obama, but it is still too close to be moved into his column decisively.
