The Democrats need to pick up 9 seats to get a 60-seat, filibuster-proof majority in the senate, which pretty much will mean they can pass whatever they'd like. So below is my map of the most hotly-contested seats, showing which way I think they will flip. Only Louisiana is currently held by a Democrat, which means my map shows 9 pickups putting the Dems right at 60. Explanations after the map.
(If you can't see the map, click here.)
New Mexico and Virginia are open seats and are beyond safe. Virginia is looking to go by about a 30 point margin for popular former Gov. Mark Warner over not-so-popular former lunatic governor and prez candidate Jim Gilmore (who incomprehensibly said that the GOP would never pick "Rudy McRomney" as a candidate).
Colorado and New Hamshire have stayed tighter, but both states should go for Obama, and in a year tilting this heavily Democratic, neither will fall to the Republicans this time around. CO is open, and in NH Sununu - a known political brand - has been trailing for months.
Louisiana, once considered a good pick-up opportunity for Republicans, shows Mary Landrieu (D-inc.) leading by 13 points - more than the Republican incumbents lead by in Texas, South Carolina, and freaking Oklahoma. This seat is safely Democratic.
North Carolina, Oregon, and Minnesota will all be closer. OR is safest of the three; while Jeff Merkley is not the most exciting dude in the world (trust me, I worked for OR for Obama, remember? snorrre), Oregon is pissed about the war, the economy, the environment, etc, and doesn't care that incumbent Gordon Smith is fairly moderate. N.C. should be pretty safe, even given the closeness of the presidential race, but Elizabeth Dole is an idiot, the DSCC has done a good job of branding her as such, and - well - no seat is safe this year. Speaking of which - Norm Coleman, Republican incument of Minnesota, looks to lose his seat to comedian Al Franken in a three-way race in which an independent candidate is polling at around 17 percent - taking more from Coleman than Franken. MN will go for Obama; all Franken needs to do is hold on to the democratic base.
The last four states - Mississippi, Georgia, Kentucky, and Alaska are tougher calls. All could go either way. But here are my thoughts.
Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens is currently on trial for being a corrupt bastard. It should be decided this week. If he is found guilty, he will lose. If not, he will probably win, even though in ANY OTHER STATE this would be a deal-breaker. The truth is, Alaskans know their state is corrupt, and as long as it brings them tons of money, they don't really care. They can keep looking themselves in the mirror as long as he's not actually labeled a criminal, as shown by the tightening polls here (particularly post-Palin VP selection).
Kentucky is home to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who faces a tough race. However, his state will be going for McCain by about 12% most likely, which will help him. McConnell is no Liddy Dole, and while the polls have tightened, challenger Bruce Lundsford is still trailing. Kentucky also isn't a state where record-breaking African American turnout will be enough to make up the difference, unlike...
Mississippi and Georgia. Black turnout in these states, if large enough, could make a HUGE difference. Both have been polling within a few points as of late. And both have certain advantages for dems. In Georgia, Obama has invested more money and advertising than McCain; while he basically pulled out several weeks ago, the damage has been done, and it looks like he is but a few points behind McCain. Dems churned out huge registration numbers and with high enough turn-out challenger Jim Martin has a real shot. In Mississippi, the GOP "incumbent" just took over a year ago from the retiring Senator Trent Lott. GOPer Wicker actually has less name recognition than former governor and Dem candidate Roger Musgrove, and - get this - in MS special elections, the name of the party doesn't appear on the ballot. The Republicans have been hammering Musgrove, but he is still within a few points, especially post-economic crisis. It is, once again, all a turnout game.
What happens with undecideds, get out the vote, etc during the next week could largely decide a lot of these seats, but things are looking pretty good for the Democrats. *Shocker.
