Sunday, October 26, 2008

How Obama Takes Montana and Georgia

Despite the name of this post, I am not saying that Obama will necessarily win these two states. Based on the polls, it would appear he will come somewhat close - a lot closer than a Dem has in a while - but not prevail over McCain. Still, consider this.

Montana is in the part of the country with the largest number of cell phone-only voters - people who are generally missed by pollsters and who are overwhelmingly supporting Obama. If it is a 2 point difference in favor of Obama nationally (which a lot of people have been predicting), that number could well be something like 3 or 4% in Montana, enough to make up a big chunk of Obama's small deficit.

Another factor is that Ron Paul will be on the ballot in Montana. I think this is the only state where this is so. It is not inconceivable that some disgruntled Republicans will go into the voting booth on Nov. 4th, see Paul's name, and figure "what the hell" - and some may have been planning on doing this, and telling pollsters "other" or "undecided." Could strip away another point or two from McCain, and in a tight race, that's a lot.

Georgia, as I have written before, could well be a place where unprecedented African American turnout - especially people who haven't voted before, and thus are not counted in most "Likely Voter" polls - could really help Obama. That's a given.

But I also read yesterday a statement from Libertarian candidate Bob Barr, who predicted McCain will lose Georgia. While Barr won't pick up many points most places, I had forgotten that he was a Republican congressman from Georgia for several years, so he should do well in this state. Again these may be folks who are ticked off at McCain and the republicans, especially post-bailout, but can't bring themselves to vote for a Democrat (especially an African American one). McCain has never been popular with a lot of base voters.

All this is in addition to a national climate very favorable towards Obama, as well as his huge fund raising, advertising, and organizational edges in these places. Granted, if he wins these states, it will probably be a national landslide, but it is still very interesting to consider how the traditional political maps could well be thrown out the window this cycle.