(If you can't see my map, click here.)
Now as for an explanation of the choices I made... At this point, Obama has the Upper Midwest, Pacific Coast, and Northeast locked. This includes potential swing states of OR, WA, IA, MN, WI, MI, PA, and NH. None of those are likely to switch, pending something dramatic.
Out west, I put Colorado and New Mexico in Obama's campaign. The latter is a done deal; while CO will be close, it has been trending Obama consistently since early in the race. Any state where a candidate hasn't led in a while, no matter how close it has been, they are unlikely to win at this point. That's an important piece of logic that a lot of prediction-makers are ignoring. I have similarly put Nevada in Senator McCain's column, as it has stayed very close or, often, leaning his way since the start of the election.
In the south, Virginia goes to Obama by the same logic - it has been close the entire election, and has been trending Obama for a while. The dems have registered tons of new voters there, Obama has been dominating the airwaves, and he, Senator Biden, and Mrs. Obama have made far more campaign stops there. On the other hand, North Carolina will certainly be a lot closer than it has in recent years, but it seems unlikely that - having been behind for so long and it being such a conservative state - that Obama will hold onto a lead here when voters finally head to the polls. Still, it is doable.
Further south, I'm predicting Florida for Obama. Polling has shown him with a pretty large average lead here over the past few weeks. He has the money needed for the costly advertising that will need to happen. Also, with Florida's housing market in shambles, and the high proportion of senior citizens, the fact that Obama has taken big leads in who's best to lead the economy and manage social security will help Obama here. It being a Southern state and one with a lot of older, white voters, one wonders if this could be a Bradley Effect victim, but I tend to think that idea is overemphasized.
Into the Midwest, Indiana and Missouri can probably be put in McCain's tally. Even in the heat of the economic crisis, where Obama's numbers probably peaked, he didn't really come ahead here, he just closed the gap. They will be close but will probably stay read. I have also predicted Ohio for McCain. It is truly a toss-up right now, but polling suggests that Obama's post-econ meltdown numbers have dropped more here than, say, Florida. If the economy gets worse, Obama could win here, but honestly, if he couldn't poll outside of the margin of error during the bailout scare, it's hard to see him coming ahead when he's been trailing all year.
This puts Obama at an 88 electoral vote lead, with far more room for expansion than McCain. Obama could end up winning this by 200 electoral votes or more if things went well enough; it's hard to picture McCain winning by more than a few dozen by even the rosiest predictions.
Don't call the race over yet, however; as the Post pointed out this morning, while a candidate losing after seeing leads like this would be unprecedented in recent history, races like that (Carter in '76 and Clinton in '92) both showed major tightening in the final two or three weeks.
