Obama's numbers have leveled off somewhat nationally, and things are likely to tighten more in the final two weeks. In the states, it's somewhat of a different story with some showing him losing steam (Ohio), some showing him standing steady (Florida and Nevada), and some gaining (N.C. and Missouri). If nothing else, read the take on Missouri, which is the real story today.
(Click here if you can't see my map.)
Here's where we stand: things out West are standing still, with Obama keeping modest leads in N.M. and Colorado, and a slight lead in Nevada. The Northeast and Upper Midwest are locked. Here are the five closest calls from the map above:
FLORIDA:
Florida will stay close until the end, no doubt about it. But Obama's lead there has remained consistent, and at this point, it seems like there's not a lot McCain can do to make up for Obama's big money advantage.
OHIO:
On the other hand, Ohio has been moving in the other direction - away from Obama and back to McCain. The margin is small and Obama could still take the state, but it's looking better for McCain and with only two weeks left, Obama has not a lot of time to close the deal.
NORTH CAROLINA:
With Virginia looking better and better for Obama and having similar demographics to the Tarheel state, I guess this makes sense... and yet, it is still pretty shocking to see North Carolina here. A few weeks ago I'd have said it'd be close but probably wouldn't actually flip blue. With the Colin Powell endorsement sure to help with military families, economic times rough in factory towns, and Obama with a big grassroots / money / ad-time edge, it now looks very much like a pickup opportunity for Obama - even if it's not a landslide nationwide.
NEVADA:
Not much to say about Nevada because no one is doing much polling here. What has been done shows an Obama trend. I think that CW says, why bother polling in Nevada? It's only 5 electoral votes. This is true, but with Obama almost sure to carry the Kerry states plus N.M. and Iowa, 5 electoral votes will give Obama 269 - and he wins in the House if it's a tie.
MISSOURI:
It's often called the election bellweather state, and that's starting to be something the Obama team can appreciate. Here again MOMENTUM is key. Whereas Ohio has shown Obama losing steam, he has polled ahead or tied in every poll out of MO in the past 2 weeks. He had a crowd of 100,000 in St. Louis over the weekend (compared to McCain's crowd of 3,000 there today. Why is OH moving red and MO blue? Well, why are VA and NC moving blue despite being "red" states while the "toss-up" of OH moves red? Probably because Ohio is one of the few states McCain and the GOP have actually put a lot of time and money into. Had they been able to invest more in VA, NC, and MO, they wouldn't be so far behind right now. But they couldn't and so behind is where they are. Thus a state like Missouri can be trending more and more blue, even though McCain has held on to some toss-ups.
OTHER STATES TO WATCH...
McCain still has a small shot at Colorado, New Hampshire, and Virginia.
Obama could win in Indiana and West Virginia if he spends enough and the economy story comes back. He could win Georgia if African American turnout is high enough. He has a real shot at the Nebraska 2nd District (MSNBC is now predicting it for Obama) and who knows about North Dakota and, less so, Montana...
