Despite the campaign's laughable talk about picking up Minnesota, Wisconsin, or Pennsylvania, the only state they really have a shot at picking up from Kerry's 2004 wins is New Hampshire, and that has been trending heavily towards Obama post-GOP convention. It is also certain that (again, minus a big change) Obama will pick up the Bush wins of New Mexico and Iowa.
That means Obama will win at least 264 votes. In a tie of 269, Obama will be voted in as president by the House of Representatives. That means McCain must win all of the following swing states to prevent an Obama victory; losing any would mean defeat for the GOP ticket.
(if you don't see the map, click here)
How likely is it that McCain will do this? Let's break it down state by state, with from easiest for McCain to hold (and that's a relative term at this point) to most difficult:
5. NEVADA
Unlike other Western potential swing states that have been pro-Obama from the start (WA, OR, NM, and even CO), Nevada has taken longer to come around. The economic issues, which gave Obama a big bump in industrial states and the senior-filled Florida, haven't hit home as much out here. Registration has moved in favor of the dems, but that's true everywhere. Nevada may well flip, but it is the least likely of these five to do so.
4. COLORADO
Last week I said Colorado was looking safer all the time, but it is clear that while Obama may well win it is going to be very close. Like I said about NV, Obama hasn't gotten an "economy bump" in Colorado, and most polls show him within the margin of error. The race will probably stay that way through the end, and so if McCain can get high enough base turnout - which will be likelier if the election nationally looks close but doable for the Republican ticket - he may yet hold this state.
3. OHIO
It's the economy, stupid. If this issue stays as dominant as it is today, McCain loses Ohio by a few points. If things calm down at all on that front (unlikely), something sparks a national security concern (who knows), or the character assault on Obama works (most likely), he may hold on to it. If the economy shows more signs of trouble, he is doomed.
2. FLORIDA
The Sunshine State is in a similar position as Ohio, although it's not just the economy that has hurt McCain here in the past few weeks. His choice of a young, crazy-evangelical running mate didn't help him with senior or Jewish voters, or with moderates, or with anyone but the Panhandle base. The other thing about Florida is that it is a state where both camps have invested a lot of money, but where Obama is more likely to have the dough to see things through. McCain has been somewhat neglectful of Florida as a few months ago it looked safe. The fact that it has changed so dramatically, and that factors are working increasingly in Obama's favor, should make the GOP very, very worried about this one.
1. VIRGINIA
Obama has put time, money, and energy into this state - ads, volunteers, voter registration efforts, campaign visits, prominent convention speaking roles for its Democratic leaders, etc. McCain has done nothing. Democrats registered scores of thousands of voters here, and the state has been trending increasingly democratic for the past few years. McCain cannot afford ads here, especially coming out of the pricey DC media market. Some recent polls have shown Obama with a double-digit lead, many with smaller leads, and none has shown McCain favored outside the margin of error in a month. Unlike Ohio and Florida - where Obama is playing well now but was always considered poorly suited for - Virginia has always liked the Illinois senator, as was demonstrated by his surprising landslide victory here in the primaries. Obama won't win big here but he very likely will win.
