Microcosms

For the past week, Students for Justice in Palestine and the Georgetown-Israel Alliance have been fighting for space through my office. Neither is willing to actually follow the policies we have in place, and the massive bureaucracy that is Georgetown seems more content to bounce them around from office to office rather than actually address their concerns.

Today, after someone from the Georgetown-Israel Alliance argued with my boss for 20 minutes trying to get a space for tomorrow, the president of the group called asking to cancel the same space. "Didn't someone just call arguing that you really needed it?" I asked. "Oh," she answered, "that must have been our other president."

*Sigh.*

What Bush Got Right

So far, these are the only things I can remember on which I felt Bush got it right:

1) Immigration Reform: At least he tried. If Bush had actually gotten his legislation through the GOP-blocked Congress, I think we would at least be in a better place than we are now. He didn't really get it "right," but it was one of the few issues where I didn't hate his position, and thought would have worked out okay if not great.

2) Dubai Ports Deal: Congress - including many Democrats - behaved shamefully in their racist and Islamaphobic attacks on the deal that would have put US ports under the control of a Dubai-owned security company. I don't love the idea of our security being outsourced, but it's happening anyway. No one said "Don't outsource this to a private company"; they said "Don't outsource it to Arabs." As much as he played the whole "radical Islamic terrorists" card, Bush did a decent job of showing that Islam is not inherently bad - despite, of course, the horrible wars and policies of torture he inflicted on many Muslims. It seems ridiculous that I would have to put this down as a "good position" - what? not all Muslims are evil? for real? - but we live in ridiculous times.

3) The Transition: You have to hand it to him: Bush seemed to put the country first during the transition, trying to work with the president-elect. He went against his party and his general ideological stances to move the economy in the direction he knew Obama would take it, rather than trying to steer the economy in his own direction only to have a mid-January change of course. Maybe it's just that I am happy to see him go, but I think he did a decent job.

And that's all I can think of. Well done, Dubbya.

American Still Sucks

With all the excitement coming up next week, I ask you to remember that America is still a disgusting nation in many ways. Consider this poll from Ipsos / McClatchy, taken this week:

"As you may know, violence has recently erupted in the Middle East in the Gaza Strip and Israel. Based on what you have seen, read or heard, do you think that the use of force by [RANDOMIZE: Israel/Hamas] has been excessive or is appropriate given the circumstances?"

Hamas

57% Excessive
18% Appropriate

Israel

36% Excessive
44% Appropriate

And regardless of your personal feelings, who do you believe is more to blame for the current conflict?

44% Hamas
14% Israel
9% Both
4% Neither

American Hero

Larry Flynt may be the greatest political activist of our time.

In addition to battling for First Amendment rights and offering money to folks for providing details on political sex scandals, he is now asking Congress for a $5 billion bailout of the porn industry. Not because business is hurting, but because people are downtrodden, depressed, and need more porn in this time of global crisis.

Oh. He also sends free copies of Hustler to every member of Congress. Something I discovered, with some embarrassment, on my first day as a Capital Hill intern.

Why I Hate CNN

Yes, clearly this is breaking news. And requires a spiraling yellow background. And an exclamation point after the headline!

I mean, sure, this is the politics page, and we are amidst the biggest political scandal in decades, and there are major presidential transition announcements today. But OMG ITS SNOWING!!1!

Why the F Not? Fran Drescher for Senate

Fran Drescher, who once played the title character on the hit series "The Nanny," has officially thrown her name into the mix to be New York's next senator. NY Governor Dave Paterson will be replacing Hillary Rodham Clinton when she becomes the next Secretary of State.

Why not appoint Drescher? She is actually a resident of New York, unlike Clinton. And she has experience working as an advocate for women and for cancer research, including lobbying for a bill in Congress. She was recently named a "diplomatic envoy" for the State Department on women's issues. In other words, she has more experience than Caroline Kennedy, who is currently considering the position and - if she decides she wants it - may well be the frontrunner.

What has Kennedy done to earn this? Not a whole fuck of a lot. She was born into a rich, famous family... She worked at a museum... She's on the board of a ballet group... She endorsed Obama in the primary, and went to a few rallies... And she helped him pick his vice president. That's about it. If doing volunteer work for Obama qualifies you to be a senator, I guess I should put my name in for consideration, as well.

Sen. Ted Kennedy of Massachusetts, Caroline's uncle, had the audacity to contact Gov. Paterson and say, basically, that because Caroline is a Kennedy people will do things for her and send lots of money to NY. Is this what our political system should be about? Picking leaders based on their lineage and not their merits? Offering favors for politicians who give our family positions? This very often turns out to be the case - Bush, anyone? - and I hope it's not this time around.

So why not Fran Drescher? As she says, she's honest and genuine. I can't picture her ever not putting what she honestly felt were the best interests of her constituents first. She has shown an ability to put politics aside and work for common good, to a greater degree than Kennedy or most of the politicians being considered have done. And I'd rather see a hard-working, cancer-surviving girl from Queens get a boost than another snobby Manhattan heiress who has had life handed to her on a silver platter, and now, despite having zero political experience, would love a free senate seat. Plus, can't you hear her now? "Awwwwwww, but Mistah Leaduh.... I wanna be on the comitteeeeeeeee!"

I endorse Fran The Nanny for NY senator. The Kennedys can kiss my ass.

Few Thoughts on the Cabinet

As I mentioned earlier, Obama made several announcements today of posts that most of us knew for some time now:

Hillary Rodham Clinton for Secy / State
Robert Gates to stay @ Defense
Eric Holder for Attorney General
Janet Napolitano for Homeland Security
Jim Jones for National Security Adviser
Susan Rice for UN Ambassador

Those represent 3 of the 4 biggest cabinet positions and 2 prominent cabinet-level positions. At this point, when we include Geithner's nomination for Secy / Treasury (and the Richardson for Commerce / Daschle for HHS nominations that are all but official) the cabinet is getting pretty well filled out.

What do we see so far? Very little "change," for one thing. Obama is keeping Bush's Defense Secretary, who - while viewed as being fairly non-ideological and well respected in the District - is hardly an appointment that suggests Obama will be taking very drastic measures in Iraq. Jones, while technically not a Republican, does not want to set a time table in Iraq and campaigned with McCain this year.

We also have several people who served in the Clinton administration (Richardson as Secy / Engergy and UN Ambassador; Clinton as First Lady; Rice as undersecy / State; Holder as assistant AG; not to mention Larry Summers, now WH economic adviser and then Secy / Treasury). We also have Daschle, another veteran Dem and former senate majority leader. Granted, a lot of Obama's administration will be staffed by people who were involved in the last Democratic administration. But it is notable that there haven't been a lot of fresh faces in the nominations thus far.

I've spent much of today frustrated that no other positions have even the smallest, daintiest of leaks surrounding them. There isn't even much buzz up on the political sites and blogs, and if those people aren't willing to speculate and pull stories out of their asses, you KNOW there must be a shortage of data. So far we've had one republican nomination - Gates - and that is kind of an ambivalent one: it's certainly way more high profile than Bush's token appointment of Norm Mineta to Transportation, but it's also clearly designed to be a temporary appointment, and Gates isn't exactly a partisan figure. I'm hoping to see a few more bipartisan appointments - I think Olympia Snowe would be great for just about anything; Hagel would be good at Vets Affairs; and Lincoln Chaffee, while now an Indy after losing his '06 Senate race in RI as a GOPer, would be great at Interior or EPA administrator (he was endorsed by the Sierra Club and League of Conservation Voters). Plus, why not endorse an independent, former pro-gay marriage Republican to the cabinet? If Obama wants to be more post-partisan than just bi-partisan, that's the way to go.

After all, what he's done so far - while not terribly anti-status quo in the amount of Republicans he's picked - is shown a willingness to bring together people from a variety of backgrounds, affiliations, and viewpoints, and try to put together a strong team of leaders who will bring the nation in a bold, new direction. Let's hope it works.

Back from Thanksgiving

I thought the 9 hour drive from DC to my home in Connecticut on Wednesday was bad... Yesterday I left my house at 3:15 in the afternoon and didn't arrive at my home in the District until after 2AM. We hit traffic throughout Connecticut, even the rural/suburban part; we took 2 hours to travel 15 miles leading up to the Tappan Zee Bridge, where they closed a lane for no apparent reason; hit more traffic in Jersey; and an accident in Maryland caused huge delays on the Beltway. Yikes.

Nonetheless, it was a nice few days at home - busy, but still a nice break from school, work, etc. I am back at my office now, where the absence of two staff members has caused the university assistant VP who oversees us to work out of our space today. I'm always nervous when she's around, and doubly so when there are fewer staffers here to take any heat.

Obama will be announcing Clinton for State, Gates for Defense, Holder for AG, Jones for NSA, and Rice (Susan, NOT Condi, thank Jesus) in just a few minutes so I should have more on that in the afternoon. Hope that everyone had a great Thanksgiving!

Napolitano for What, Now?

I was disappointed earlier in the week when news broke that Eric Holder had been picked for AG over Gov Janet Napolitano (D-Ariz.) - not for any particular reason, other than the fact that I think she's cool and have been following her career with interest.

Then last night I read that Napolitano had been selected for Secretary of Homeland Security. WOW. She has experience as a U.S. Attorney and the state's Attorney General, and has done a lot of work on immigration (which falls into DHS jurisdiction). However, I thought that they would pick someone with intelligence and/or military experience, like Jack Reed (D-R.I.) for example.

The DHS has only existed for a few years, so saying that Napolitano will be its first female head isn't a big deal... except when you consider that even if it had been around for 100 years, she probably still would be the first. Did Obama miss the memo that women are supposed to handle only issues like education, health care, and other motherly things?? ;-)

Also... elephant in the room... Napolitano is 50 and single (unusual for a politician), and looks pretty damn gay. I don't want to judge based on stereotypes, but she's definitely the most prominent gay-in-waiting politician in the country. If she wants to keep this private, or, in fact, is not gay, I totally understand and support her. However, if she is gay, that makes her appointment - to no less than the Department of Homeland Security - pretty awesome.

But whatever. Congrats to Gov. Napolitano. She has had a really outstanding career, and this is an excellent move. I tend to think that, unfortunately, America's first female president will have to be more like Sarah Palin (fitting of our stereotypes, young, attractive) than Napolitano (threatening to our notions of gender roles, not getting the Republican male base hot and bothered). Might as well keep hoping, though.

Sam Nunn, Voting Rights, Nixon, More Lutherans

Ready for a post that has very neat parallels to yesterday's?

• I'm still working on the first chunk of my thesis draft. Have to turn it in at 4pm. It's coming along well, though, and I've got enough done now to not look like an idiot.
  
  
• Despite having to do that today, went to see FROST/NIXON at the Kennedy Center last night (since I had already bought my ticket before this deadline was set.) It was great, and seeing it a few blocks from the White House and right next door to Watergate was a really cool experience. Lots of parallels to the current administration as well. Definitely recommend you hit it up.
  
  
• Again I have a post up over at TNG. This one is about Sam Nunn getting selected to head Obama's transition of the Dept. of Defense - a troubling sign as Nunn was the architect of the military's discriminatory "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" policy.
  
  
• Also again (see what I meant about this being like yesterday?), I am in my home town / region newspaper, The Day of Connecticut, again today. This is a piece about my efforts on the constitutional amendment that just got passed which allows 17-year-olds to vote in primary elections if they will be 18 in time for the general election. The piece makes me look like I'm taking a lot of the credit, but that's because - bizarrely - none of my partners in crime got back to the reporter to be interviewed. Back in our high school days, we would all be fighting for media attention for our projects (a fight that I'd usually win, as I can drop sound bites like a pro.) Oh well. It was nice to know that it got picked up by the local media, at least, as this should be good inspiration for other young people to get invovled - which was the purpose not only of the content of the ammendment, but of the act of pursuing it, as well.

Still not sure how I pulled off that thesis work. There really must be a god, because there's no way I'm bullshitting this on my own.

Lieberman, Bradley, Lutherans, etc

Life is pretty crazy right now, as I have a chapter of my thesis due tomorrow and a term paper due next week, neither of which I am particularly prepared for. It's funny how I am always happy to write unless it's actually something I'm supposed to be writing. My thesis, for the record, is on the conflict within the ELCA (the main Lutheran organization in America) on homosexuality, so it's not exactly something that should be like pulling teeth to write!

My procrastination projects, meanwhile, have included a piece in The New Gay today on the "Bradley Effect" that occurred with Proposition 8 polling, and also a letter in The Day of Connecticut, voicing support for efforts within Congressional leadership to strip Lieberman of his leadership post. He did, after all, betray not only the Democratic party (and the best interests of his country), but also the people of Connecticut, to whom he pledged to support the Democrats while in office as an independent. We'll see if he actually gets punished; frankly, I'd rather have him as a moderate Republican than as a cowardly, treasonous Democrat.

But now it's back to working on this thesis... At least the portion which is due in draft form by tomorrow... Wish me luck!

Legacy

It seems that President Bush could be due for just a little bit of redemption. He appears to be handling the transition remarkably well; it's the first wartime transition we've had to deal with in quite a while, and with the economy in shambles as well, this is definitely an important period.

I also felt that he has shown a lot of grace in the days following Obama's win. His speech in the Rose Garden seemed genuine and heartfelt, as well as one in which he put the interests of the country before politics; same could be said of his and Laura Bush's invitation of the Obamas to the White House tomorrow. Furthermore, the fact that his administration (especially Press Sec'y Dana Perino and Homeland Security Sec'y Michael Chertoff) continue to talk about the possibility of terrorist attacks suggests that maybe this wasn't JUST a partisan scare game, and that they might legitimately be concerned that - in the midst of a major change of power - we could be struck.

After such a hyper-partisan, unethical, and disastrously mismanaged presidency, could George Bush be improving his legacy a tiny bit by at least making sure the next guy arrives ready to go?

For Your Consideration: Jim Martin

I know that I just blogged about the election being over, but guess what? As I mentioned, there's still the Senate run-off in Georgia. Basically, the sitting republican, Saxby Chambliss, got 49.8% to Democrat Jim Martin's 46.8%. Since no one got over 50%, they're headed to an early December run-off.

The senate currently rests at 57 Democrats and 40 Republicans - races in Minnesota and Alaska are still being counted. Don't forget that with 60 seats, the Democrats are filibuster-proof and will be able to accomplish amazing things with our new President Elect.

The point is... Do something to help!!!! Give a few dollars to help make sure a progressive agenda is passed through our legislature! Imagine how angry you will be if Martin loses by 1 or 2 points, and a bill on the Iraq War or health care or education gets stalled by 1 vote. I was giving to Democratic senate races in amounts like $7 this election. If you can buy a sandwich, you can give the guy $5.

If you don't have $5, you can sign up here to call voters from your cell phone on the weekend, or you can at least ask your progressive friends to give a few bucks.

CMON FOLKS, ride that election high and make President Elect Barack Obama's job a little bit easier!!! We saw this week that anything is possible, so let's get this done!

Reflections

The White House, on election night... as caught on my cell phone.

Wow.

After two years, it's over. And we have a new President-Elect - the man who will in a few short months become America's first black president.

Not only are the results surreal, but so is the fact that the election is over. I keep bouncing over to polling sites and then remembering that there's nothing to check. I look at the electoral map, with states shaded in red or blue, and realize that that's the final tally (minus Missouri, for now).

But the great thing about elections is that they always come around again, usually before you know it. We still have the Georgia senate run-off election in December, and then the 2009 governor's races will be starting, and then it'll be midterms, and then it'll be 2012, and I will hopefully be standing behind a successful President Obama. See how it is to jump light-years ahead of ourselves?

My posts here have been light the past few days as I've been doing a lot of political stories over at The New Gay. My post from today is a personal and political reflection of where I was on election night, where gay rights stand in light of Prop 8 passing in California, and some general thoughts.

Part of that story includes my wild and crazy Tuesday night. I watched the results come in at a friend's house, and when the race was called, I led a mob of Georgetown students running through the sidewalks and sometimes streets straight to the White House. There was a mosh pit, and secret service agents I tried (often successfully) to make smile by yelling "OBAMA!!!", there were people I haven't seen since freshman year who I ran up and hugged, there was cheering, there was celebration. I lost my voice. I called everyone I could think in my current state to call. I felt really and truly proud to be an American, something I've never felt before.

It's been a wild ride, and I'm thankful for the people who have been a part of my political journey. From New Hampshire last fall, volunteering for Richardson; to the deserts of Egypt, trying to find a net cafe to see who won the primaries; from staying up until the morning call to prayer in Turkey to watch results come in during the great Clinton-v-Obama battle; to working for our president elect this summer in the great state of Oregon. Thanks to everyone who joined with me in conversation, in taking action, and in being a part of this incredible movement.

MSNBC's Dirty Trick

MSNBC may be viewed as the liberal equivalent to Fox News, but for a "liberal" network, the following really angered me today.

They had a video posted called, "Parents horrified as kids show up in gay ad." What does that make you think the story is about? First, I think of homophobia - of a great fear of the gays. And I think that the story is probably about gay groups manipulating children somehow, destroying America's families one at a time.

Turns out that it is regarding Prop 8 in California, which seeks to ban gay marriage in that state. Only the ad is for Prop 8, meaning AGAINST gay marriage rights. The kids in question showed up in an anti-gay rights, homophobic ad, not in a "gay ad."

And as it turns out, the scummy, small-minded advertisers didn't even do anything illegal. They used footage of kids attending a gay wedding, which is legal in California, where for political campaigns public footage can be used without the permission of the people in the video.

Thanks, MSNBC, for letting your true colors show in your own false advertising of this "news story."

Friday Memos

For politics:

• I count down the Top 10 Moments of Campaign '08 over at The New Gay, reaching all the way back to the candidate announcements... in 2000-and-freaking-6.
• The Fix has his final senate predictions, with which I tend to agree. I still think that we may be more likely to see a surprise in Mississippi than in Kentucky, but that's mostly just going on gut feelings.
• Politico has a conversation on whether or not another Republican would have done better this cycle. Most say that the "real McCain" or "McCain 2000" would have done better than... cyborg McCain? I personally think that Mitt Romney would have been a m uch better candidate - more youth and vigor, more political savvy, better on the economy, and less tied down to Bush. But hard to look in that rear view mirror, isn't it?

And on a more fun level, there is this reminder from Best Week Ever to have a very gay old Halloween.

UPDATED Final Presidential Analysis

Ed. note: Jeez, could I have had ANY more technical problems with that last post? Everything should be working now...

Here's my final take on the race - not with a straight-up prediction, but rather based on three models.

Model One is based on conservative estimates of voter turnout and preference. This is what I think is most likely to happen. Note that Florida stays red, a decision I made based on the hesitance of FL voters to move to Obama in the past month and a half, and the fact that McCain and the RNC have putting in a lot of resources here.

<p><strong>><a href="http://projects.washingtonpost.com/2008/pick-your-president/">2008 Election Contest: Pick Your President</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the 2008 presidential election.</p>
(If you can't see this map, click here.)

Model Two is based on a blue collar back down / Bradley Effect scenario in which voters in Pennsylvania and Ohio get into the voting booths and can't quite bring themselves to vote for Senator Obama. Pennsylvania has been looking safe, but the GOP is trying its damnedest for the state, and the polling numbers seem to be dropping. And Ohio, while trending better than Florida as of late, is still too close to call. If anywhere we'd see a reluctance of the "Hillary Clinton Democrats" to actually vote for Obama, it's in these two states. Note, though, that in this model, Obama still holds onto Nevada, Colorado, and Nevada - three states that I think are a lock for Obama at this point - as well as Bush '04 state Iowa, which is also sure to swing. It all comes down to Virginia, where I believe there will be less of a Bradley effect, less of a Clinton Dem problem (recall that Obama won Virginia's primary 2-to-1), and where Obama has put in much more effort and money than McCain. Therefore, even in this model, Obama still - barely - ekes out a win.

<p><strong>><a href="http://projects.washingtonpost.com/2008/pick-your-president/">2008 Election Contest: Pick Your President</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the 2008 presidential election.</p>
(can't see this map? click here.)

Model Three is based on massive African American and youth turnout - which some of the early voting numbers are suggesting - which would push Obama over in several southern states and also win him current toss-up (and major bellwether) Missouri. I don't realistically see other states, like Arizona, Montana, or North Dakota, switching - pending a McCain disaster in the next three days. This is kind of my vision of a best case scenario for Team Obama.

<p><strong>><a href="http://projects.washingtonpost.com/2008/pick-your-president/">2008 Election Contest: Pick Your President</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the 2008 presidential election.</p>
(can't see this map? click here.)

In a few days, we'll finally know for sure. Until then... we wait ;-)

Five Days Out...

We're five days away from the 2008 election and there are developments, polls, and new stories every minute - and yet, at the same time, there is a growing sense that it's over.  We don't know the results yet, but after 2 long years, all that it comes down to is for Americans to walk into those polls and cast their ballots.

Starting today, I will be running a series of political countdowns on The New Gay, and I hope you'll pop over and check them out.  Today's post is a fun one on Halloween, but they'll be getting more serious as the election draws even nearer, and then actually - finally - concludes.  I hope that you'll follow my posts over there, and I'll continue to have updates here, as well.  Here's my tentative schedule:

Today, 10/30: Top 5 Ways to Politicize Halloween
Friday, 10/31: Top 10 Moments of Campaign '08
Monday, 11/3: Top Reasons to Vote
Tuesday, 11/4: Top Things to Watch For on Election Day
Wednesday, 11/5: Top Surprises in the Results

TNG also has a lot of other great election coverage, including the presidential campaign of fellow blogger, Ben.  I may or may not have a high-ranking appointment in my future...  But if I told you, I'd have to kill you.  (Not really, though.)  So please stay tuned for the all the latest.

Equality

First off, there's the story of a 109-year-old daughter of a slave who sent in her ballot for Obama this week... Reminding me that despite it's shortcomings, America is a land of remarkable stories and redeemable qualities.

Second, on a personal note, I had my full-day, final interview for Teach for America today. I think it went pretty well, and I am keeping my fingers crossed; I will find out if I am accepted on November 17th. And after weeks of research, reading, thinking, applying, writing, applying, putting together references, picking locations, picking teaching preferences, and APPLYING, I am really hoping to have an opportunity to help bridge the achievement gap among American youths. We'll see :-)

Presidential Update: Too Good to be True?

I don't have much time to post - my TeachForAmerica final interview is in 13 hours - but things are really looking up for Sen. Obama a week before the election day. Almost too good. Like, crazy-good. Go to pollster.com and check out that map.

Obama has every single Kerry state (including PA and NH) as solid Blue states. He is also solid in Virginia (up 8 points) and Iowa (up 12 points), two states George Bush carried in '04. That puts him at 272 electoral votes already - enough to win the election.

Four states - Ohio, Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado - are also leaning Blue. With NM and CO, the two most solidly for Obama, he has 286 EVs; with OH and NV as well, he has 311.

Looking at the swing states, with 85 EVs up for grabs, Obama is currently ahead in Florida, North Carolina, Missouri, and North Dakota, which would put him at at 367 EVs to McCain's 171. If Obama sweeps the other swing states, all of which are within the margin of error, he has 396 - the biggest landslide in many years.

And if Obama picks up the current Lean McCain states, plus the one Nebraska EV which is allocated just to the district containing Omaha, he would win 416-122.

*** A FEW NOTES ***

(a) I am not saying this is going to happen. But that is Obama's window of possibility right now. By contrast, even if McCain swept the swing states and the Lean Obama states, he would still lose the election with 261 votes. This means that McCain needs to run the table on every swing state and state leaning Obama, AND pick up another state like NH or PA.

(b) As per the title of this post, things may also be too good to be true. Keep in mind that national polling numbers, while up and down, have been declining a bit for Obama in the past few days. The national polling numbers are usually about 3 days behind what's actually happening, as most of them take a few days to be gathered and released.

State polls take longer. They're usually almost a week behind what people are actually thinking (maybe a bit less now that things are heating up). Meaning the "trends" are usually over a week behind, because they incorporate not only few-day-old info but also polls from before that. So there could be a decline from state to state that we're not really seeing yet.

Still. OMG. One week left. One election that's ours to lose.