NEVADA (dead heat) - Nevada is probably the last real swing state left out West. Obama has a lock on N.M., unless it comes out that he is gay or something, and Colorado is probably gonna swing his way, too. Nevada is pretty much a dead heat. WashPost's Cillizza says that from 2004 to now, registration has gone from favoring Republicans by 4,000 to favoring Democrats by 40,000. But if we were going to use that do make decisions, this election would be a landslide. A lot of folks changed for the high-profile democratic caucuses but still may vote for McCain (particularly the 51% who went with Clinton). I say it's a dead heat.
MICHIGAN (leans Obama) - Should go for Obama. If Obama loses Michigan he will almost certainly lose the election. And yet I keep it in this category because it has been much closer than it should be in the polls, and it wouldn't be impossible for Obama to lose here but keepthe election close with wins out West or in Virginia.
OHIO (leans McCain) - Like Obama in Michigan, if McCain loses Ohio, it's probably a done deal. Both of these midwestern states will probably stay where they were in 2004 - blue and red, respectively - unless one of the candidates gains a much bigger advantage on the economy than either currently has.
FLORIDA (barely McCain) - This state has gone from looking pretty solidly red to more of a dead heat as of late. I've been reading a lot of experts who think that it will be closer than people have predicted. Palin probably hurts McCain with two groups - Jewish and older voters - whereas Biden probably helps Obama with both of these. And as the economy collapses around us, Obama calling McCain out on social security privatization is a great strategy that could really hurt McCain here. Again, McCain needs to win this shit if he is gonna have a chance at the election.
VIRGINIA (dead heat) - I've always thought that strategists had been overly optimistic about Obama's chances here, but Virginia was probably the one state that stayed consistent through the post-RNC/Palin bump McCain enjoyed. Through all of that, the polls here stayed the same, with McCain never up by more than two points or so. Add that to increased democratic enthusiasm and registration, and I'd say that Virginia has to be considered a toss-up right now.
NEW HAMPSHIRE (dead heat) - The Granite State may be extremely anti-war, but it's also very anti-tax, and this election is not about Iraq or foreign policy; it's about the economy. With folks here looking at their wallets as they head in to vote, I would not be surprised at all to see a McCain win here, even in a democratic year.
ANALYSIS - Obama remains the frontrunner, and if the race is close, it will probably come down to who can close the deal in these few key states. If I had to call them right now, I'd say Nevada, Ohio, and Florida for McCain; NH, Virginia, and Michigan for Obama, which would be an Obama victory.
